Complicated skies

Europe’s skies looked steady heading into 2026. Eurocontrol data showed daily flights tracking close to the previous year – a quiet resilience, even through winter’s seasonal dip. Then March arrived. Where one of the world’s busiest aviation crossroads once hummed with traffic linking Europe, Asia and Africa, there is now a striking gap. The escalating conflict involving Iran has triggered over 13,000 flight cancellations globally in its opening days alone. The Eurocontrol data tells the story visually: the year-on-year growth line, once comfortably positive, has collapsed toward zero – and briefly below it. The knock-on effects go beyond rerouted itineraries. Oil prices have soared due to attacks on refineries and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, spiking jet fuel costs – from roughly USD 85-90 per barrel earlier this year to levels approaching USD 150-200 during peak disruption. Those costs eventually land with consumers, as higher fares and energy bills quietly squeeze household budgets. Aviation has always mirrored the world’s mood. Right now, that mood is turbulent.

Source: Eurocontrol, March 2026.