Consumer sentiment

In 1978, the University of Michigan began tracking a number that would become one of economics’ most-watched gauges – the US Consumer Sentiment Index. This month, that number hit its lowest point ever recorded – a consumer sentiment reading that undercuts even the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the post-pandemic inflation shock of 2022. At the same time, there is a nuance, the correlation between consumer sentiment and actual retail spending is surprisingly weak. US Americans often spend even when they feel bad. But prolonged pessimism can have a way of becoming self-fulfilling. When enough people expect hard times, they start making choices – saving more, delaying purchases – that help bring those hard times about.

Source: University of Michigan, April 2026.