Crunching cocoa
Cocoa prices have come down from astronomical levels due to lower consumption and higher production. World production increased 8.4% in the 2024/2025 season to 4.7 million tons while grindings, a proxy for demand, decreased 4.2% resulting in a 5.9% rise in end-of-season stocks according to the International Cocoa Organization headquartered in Côte D’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer. While cocoa production declined in Côte D’Ivoire, production in Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ecuador and Indonesia has risen. Will chocolate now be one of the few categories nowadays where consumer will experience lower prices? Most likely not to the full extent of the decrease in cocoa prices as chocolate makers and retailers have absorbed part of the prior cocoa price increase. Also, they are most likely trying to retain some of the higher gross profit they will make due to lower cocoa prices.
Source: Bloomberg, ICE, March 2026.