Dinner is ready

Transactions at US restaurants, a proxy for how frequently consumers eat out, are declining about 3% year-over-year. The decline could be attributed to ‘food away from home’ inflation running at 6% year-over-year and general pressure on purchasing power for many consumers, especially those with lower incomes. Somewhat of a barbell pattern is visible in transactions with fine dining up about 10% and quick service restaurants, where check sizes are about USD 10, declining less than casual dining and fast casual where check sizes are higher.

Source: Earnest Analytics, Rabobank, 2023.