For many consumers and by extension retailers, the coming holiday season may be less cheerful than was hoped for. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects the growth in US holiday sales to slow to 3.0% at the midpoint of their forecast compared to the 3.9% growth recorded in 2023 and 4.7% in 2022. While inflation has come down and the employment market remains strong, consumer sentiment has been less robust. Further, the NRF points out that with Thanksgiving occurring later in November, there are five fewer days between that holiday and Christmas compared to last year. Notably, online sales are expected to expand more rapidly, with the NRF forecasting 8.5% growth for the segment.
Source: National Retail Federation, October 2024