Losing confidence

After spiking eight percentage points following the election in November 2024, the US National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) confidence index has retreated this year. Notably, the NFIB’s related Uncertainty Index rose four points in February to 104, the second highest reading on record. The percentage of small businesses expecting the economy to improve this year fell ten points to 37%, and those expecting to hire additional staff fell three points to 15%. Worryingly for inflation, the percentage of small businesses planning to raise prices rose ten points to 32%, the third highest jump in the survey’s history.

Source: NFIB, March 2025