Over the past two months, economic policy uncertainty has decreased in the US, EU and China, but it still remains much higher than a year ago. In the US, uncertainty spiked due to shifting fiscal and trade policies and debates over interest rate paths. The EU has faced its own challenges, including political fragmentation, energy policy shifts, and ongoing debates over fiscal rules. Meanwhile, China is grappling with a complex mix of domestic policy changes and external pressures, including trade tensions and efforts to stabilize its property sector, which have added to the unpredictability of its economic trajectory. The economic policy uncertainty index is calculated using news articles and is widely cited in academic research.
Source: Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 2025.