Stable labor

The US labor market is in good shape with the initial jobless claims trending down on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) initial jobless claims showed their usual seasonality spiking in December and January. There are several forces shaping today’s labor dynamics. Economic growth is holding up well, supported in part by rising labor productivity and boosted by the adoption of artificial intelligence. At the same time, tighter immigration policies have reduced labor supply, adding scarcity. Companies remain cautious: they are not hiring aggressively, but they are also not laying off workers in large numbers. In December, the US unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.4%.

Source: US Department of Labor, January 2026.