While many people celebrate their romantic partnerships on Valentine’s Day, world leaders continue to reconsider their trade partnerships. Although the US has dialed up its protectionist rhetoric this year, trade patterns have already been shifting in recent years. For instance, while the US continues to import significantly more from China than it exports there, total trade from China to the US declined at a 6.3% compound annual growth rate between 2021 and 2023. Over that same period, trade from the US to China fell at a 1% CAGR. On the other hand, trade from Mexico to the US grew at a 10.8% CAGR, while trade in the reverse grew at an 8% CAGR.
Source: McKinsey, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, January 2025